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Rates by lane, with the asterisks left in
A table of the lanes we track, followed by every reason the numbers in it are slightly wrong.
· 2 min · Rates
Every rate table is a small lie told for convenience. This one is no different, except that I have left the footnotes in the cells where you can see them. The figures below are all-in spot rates for a 40-foot container, quoted for loading in the week of 27 July, as a median of the offers I could verify from three forwarders.
| Lane | Rate per FEU | Week on week | Quote validity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai to Rotterdam | $3,610 | +$40 | 7 days |
| Busan to Rotterdam | $3,450 | +$25 | 7 days |
| Ningbo to Los Angeles | $2,780 | -$60 | 5 days |
| Yantian to New York | $4,120 | +$110 | 7 days |
| Shanghai to Santos | $4,950 | +$0 | 10 days |
| Port Klang to Jebel Ali | $1,090 | -$15 | 14 days |
| Rotterdam to New York | $1,860 | +$30 | 7 days |
| Ho Chi Minh City to Hamburg | $3,880 | +$95 | 5 days |
Why Ho Chi Minh City moved most
Southeast Asian origins to North Europe rose faster than the Chinese ones because two loops took their time recovering after a maintenance blank. The $95 increase is a small number in a small week, but it is the third consecutive rise on that lane. A forwarder in Hamburg told me she now books Vietnam cargo on Mondays, because the quotes seem to be refreshed on Tuesdays and she prefers to be wrong before the refresh.
Why Los Angeles fell
The transpacific drop of $60 is the only decline on the list, and it comes with a condition. The lower offers are for a specific sailing that is, I am told, 78% booked, and carriers are discounting the last 22% to fill the vessel. If you ask for the following sailing, you will be quoted $2,870. I include the lower figure because it is real. I would not budget with it.
The asterisks
- Shanghai to Santos is flat because there is almost no spot market on the lane. The $4,950 is a price carriers maintain, and shippers pay. Quote validity of ten days is the longest in the table, which says everything.
- Port Klang to Jebel Ali is a short-sea lane and behaves differently. Its rate is quoted per week and not per sailing.
- Rotterdam to New York includes a $120 documentation charge that some forwarders itemise and others fold in. I have folded it in here. If your quote shows $1,740 and a separate $120, they agree with me.
- Yantian to New York uses the all-water route. Via the west coast and rail, the median fell to $3,960 but adds six days.
One habit worth borrowing
A trade lead at a mid-sized importer I know keeps a laminated card by her desk with the same eight lanes and the last twelve weekly rates in pencil. She says the pencil matters, because she has to rub out the oldest number each Tuesday and write the new one, and by then she has actually looked at it. I have no data to say this improves procurement decisions. I note only that she has not been surprised by a rate in three years.
Next week the table gets a second column: what a contract holder on the same lane paid. The distance between the two columns is the subject of most of what I write.
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