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What the bunker surcharge hides
Fuel adjustment formulas look technical and neutral. They are neither, and one of them rounds in the carrier's favour.
Bunker adjustment factors have an air of physics about them. A formula, a published index, a lookup table by trade lane. The implication is that nobody chose these numbers. Somebody did, and last week I spent three evenings comparing the published schedules of five carriers to find out who and how.
The setup is simple. Each carrier publishes a BAF per container, adjusted monthly or quarterly, based on the average price of fuel in a reference period. The formula is a baseline price, a consumption factor, and a trade lane multiplier. Where carriers differ is in the baseline, the rounding rule, and the lag between fuel moving and the surcharge following it.
A forwarder in Antwerp asked me a plain question that started this: “If fuel is down 6% this quarter, why is my BAF down 2%?” The honest answer needs the cut.
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